The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, run over 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards at Doncaster, looks a particularly trappy contest this year, despite just eight runners. Nevertheless, we’ve analysed the recent trends in the oldest British Classic in an effort to highlight a likely winner.

What we’re looking for, ideally, this week is a horse that:

  • has won at least twice, but not more than three times
  • finished in the first three last time
  • has won a Group race
  • has never raced at, or beyond, 1 mile 6 furlongs
  • has never raced at Doncaster
  • is quoted at 8/1, or shorter, in the ante post market

Of the eight runners, Proposed has won just once, while Fields Of Athenry, Medrano and Venger Masque all failed to finish in the first three last time so, almost immediately, we’ve reduced the field to the first four in the betting.

All four have won a Group race, but Bondi Beach, Order Of St George and Simple Verse can all be eliminated from ours shortlist on the grounds that they’ve all won over 1 mile 6 furlongs. That leaves just one runner, Storm The Stars, who’s never raced at Doncaster and, at the time of writing, is quoted at 5/2 favourite, so satisfies all our selection criteria.

William Haggas’ Sea The Stars colt is also officially the highest rated runner in the race, albeit by just 1lb and, although he may lack the scope of some of his rivals after eight starts already this season, he sets a high standard. He’s already been placed in both the English and Irish Derbies and, with an extra couple of furlongs or so likely to play to his strengths, he can justify his position at the head of the market.

Selection: Doncaster 3.45 Storm The Stars (5/2) to win